Understanding changing demand for police during the coronavirus pandemic
Research Institution / Organisation
University of Manchester
In Collaboration With
Dr Matt Ashby, Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science; University of Manchester; Karen Byrom and Alexander McMillan from Cheshire Constabulary
Principal Researcher
Dr Reka Solymosi
Level of Research
Professional / Work-based
Project Start Date
October 2020
Research Context
COVID-19 has created
unprecedented challenges in the UK and globally. Police have seen new tasks
emerge, such as enforcement of restrictions on public gatherings or shielding
of vulnerable staff. At the same time, changes in people’s routine activities
altered by government restrictions on movement meant changing patterns of crime.
The early days of lockdown saw much speculation about these effects on crime
and policing, however, not always supported by data. For example, the United
States saw no significant changes in the frequency of serious assaults in
public, contrary to the concerns of media and policy makers. Other changes have
been supported, such as shifts in the types of locations where crimes were
happening (e.g. reductions in residential burglary but little change in
non-residential burglary). An evidence-based understanding of how demand on
police changed in time, place, and nature is important to provide guidance for
forces as new restrictions are imposed to control the spread of COVID-19.
To achieve this, we will analyse how demand for policing, as measured by calls
for service, changed during the different stages of the pandemic in the UK,
including the pre-lockdown period, the full lockdown beginning on 23 March 2020
and the progressive relaxation of restrictions over time. While previous
studies have looked at changes in crime associated with coronavirus, only a
minority of calls for service result in a crime being recorded and so much police
time is spent servicing non-crime demand. This includes dealing with mental
health incidents, anti-social behaviour, missing people and traffic collisions,
all of which were influenced by the pandemic. These calls are particularly
important because they relate to protecting vulnerable people, who may have
been disproportionately affected by the pandemic and government responses to it
(e.g. the suspension of some services, potentially displacing demand onto
police).
Research Methodology
Understanding relationships
between COVID-19 restrictions and demand on police time requires some estimate
of how much crime would be expected to occur in the absence of the pandemic.
This is difficult because so many factors influence how much crime occurs, and
year-to-date or month by month comparisons do not adequately account for these.
To better estimate the expected frequency of various calls which would have
happened in the absence of the pandemic, seasonal auto-regressive integrated
moving average (SARIMA) models of the frequency of different call types between
1 January 2015 and the frst confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom can
be used. We can then compare these projected trends to what was actually observed,
and can begin to imagine how the lockown at different stages influenced changes
in demand.
The quantitative results will be supplemented by interviews with police contact
management staff and managers, to understand the variety of their experience
and develop potential explanations for the patterns identified by the SARIMA
models.
Interim reports and publications
Date due for completion
October 2021
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